A few days ago X was abuzz following a very hopeful announcement by Eric Kaufmann, Professor of Politics at the University of Buckingham, saying “Trans identification is in free fall among the young.”
He was referring to data from the Centre for Heterodox Social Science Report No. 5, titled, The Decline of Trans and Queer Identity among Young Americans. The report was compiled using data from various youth survey sources, including campus surveys by the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE), the Higher Education Research Institute (HERI) freshman survey, the Andover Philips Academy annual student survey, and polling data of Brown University students.
The report shows a steep increase in trans and queer identification in the 2010s and 2020s, which peaked in 2023, followed by a steep decline:
On his Substack, Prof. Kaufmann states, “The fall in non-binary identification is quite dramatic, a halving in just two years. This is the first indication that the transgender trend among young people has reversed.”
In terms of sexual orientation, the data shows that:
- Non-conforming sexual identity is in sharp decline;
- Gay and lesbian identities are stable; while
- Heterosexuality has rebounded by 10 points since 2023.
These trends he pointed out, despite the fact that students’ worldviews have essentially remained unchanged. His data shows that mental health has steadily worsened, particularly during the Covid-19 pandemic, after which levels of depression and anxiety have decreased markedly:
In conclusion, he stated on X: “The fall of trans and queer seems most similar to the fading of a fashion or trend. It happened largely independently of shifts in political beliefs and social media use, though improved mental health played a role.”
A few familiar voices who have contributed significantly to the trans debate over the years, were not satisfied with his report and its conclusions. Health and science journalist, Benjamin Ryan, wrote on his Substack that the Report only included “data about shifts in nonbinary identification among students… and only among students at elite schools at that.” Kaufmann pointed to the survey question designs, where the options for gender identity were Agender, Genderfluid, Genderqueer, Man, Woman, Nonbinary, Questioning and Other. He said on X that a trans person answering this question is far more likely to tick the Nonbinary category.
Ryan was not convinced: “[T]here was no way for [respondents] to designate whether they were trans male or trans female.” It is as likely that “those who identified as trans reported identifying as either male or female.”
He pointed to a 2024 paper published in Sexuality Research and Social Policy showing an exponential increase in trans-identification among adults born between 1995 and 2004 (aged between 20 and 29 years old):
Counselling psychologist from South Africa, Vincent Diboni, who works with detransitioners, added to the debate. In a thread, Diboni showed a steep increase in trans-identification among youth aged 13 to 19 years old across various countries:
Kaufmann’s claim that research shows a decline in trans-identification, hinges on the assumption that someone with a transgender identity would opt for the non-binary category in the respective survey questions. This introduces potential for error, as the “slippage from sex to gender” (Heller, 2025, p. 149) in recent years has rendered the former sex/gender distinction superfluous in the minds of many trans-identified young adults.
It would be good news if the spell of the current psychogenic epidemic were starting to lift. Showalter (1997) lists 3 ingredients necessary for mass psychogenic illness:
- Physician-enthusiasts and theorists;
- Unhappy, vulnerable patients; and
- Supportive cultural environments.
Adolescence is a critical developmental period, and will always be a protracted period that includes emotional and psychological turmoil. As such, adolescents will always remain a vulnerable population, predisposed to psychogenic illnesses. The systematic reviews from Finland, the UK and the US, has led to regulatory responses in several countries, limiting the formerly unfettered fast-tracking of medical transitioning in young people. There is currently much more public debate about transgenderism, the political and activist elements thereof, its excesses (men in women’s sports and female prisons) and child-safeguarding issues. While online communities on platforms like Reddit and Tumblr have continued to serve as incubator sites for psychogenic contagions, there has been a general “vibe shift” on people’s online perceptions of gender matters. We can therefore anticipate a change in the psychogenic illness, in accordance with the changes in the first and third factors above.
The announcement by Kaufmann certainly came as a relief to many. But given the evidence to the contrary, many others remain sceptical, although hopeful that the trans spell will soon be lifted from a distressed generation.
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